Opto Sessions – Invest in the Next Big Idea

Quantum Computing is Real & Commercial Today, says D-Wave CEO

• Haydn Brain & Ed Gotham

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Dr. Alan Baratz, D-Wave CEO, joins OPTO Sessions to discuss the current state and future of quantum computing, emphasizing the unique capabilities of D-Wave's quantum annealing technology. He explains how quantum computing can solve complex problems more efficiently than classical computers, highlighting real-world applications and the growing momentum in customer bookings. 

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Hello, everyone. Welcome to another session of OptoSessions. I've got Alan Baratz on the call today, CEO of D-Wave. How are you doing, Alan? I'm great. Thanks for the opportunity to be here with you. Now we're here to talk about obviously D-Wave and quantum computing. A lot of people probably know about quantum computing from the news or something like this, but probably don't have a deep understanding of it. So if we just start from the beginning of, if you could give us an introduction to D-Wave and also just quantum computing in general and where it is today, that would be great. Sure. starting with the second question first, what is quantum computing? It's very simply using quantum mechanical effects to solve hard computational problems faster than they can be solved using classical computers. And these quantum mechanical effects are things like superposition, entanglement, tunneling. All of these quantum mechanical effects are used within our D-Wave quantum computers to help solve important problems. As far as D-Wave and what we do, we are a full stack quantum computing provider. We provide everything from the quantum computers, we design and manufacture them ourselves, to our quantum cloud service, which is currently the primary mechanism that our customers use to access our quantum systems to run their applications. to a complete suite of software development tools, all open source, so that customers can basically help us to evolve and improve the tool set through to professional services to help our customers build and deploy applications. But what really makes us unique in the quantum industry is that we are the first and only quantum computing company that is actually supporting customers today with applications leveraging our quantum systems in production as a part of their business operations. And so these include companies like Patterson Food Group or NTT Docomo or Ford Autoson that are all using our quantum systems and services today as a part of their business operations. Brilliant. And so when you say full stack, your basis, you make both the hardware and you have software that runs on top of it that people can use to build applications for in quantum computing. That's correct. So we design and manufacture and make available the quantum computers. Our current generation system is called Advantage. It is a 5,000 qubit quantum computer, the largest and most powerful quantum computer in the world. And as I said, we have a complete suite of software development tools that allows our customers to build and deploy applications that leverage those quantum systems. And I should also point out that those software development tools include access to what we call hybrid solvers that are part of our quantum cloud service. And so this is where we use both classical computing, CPUs and GPUs, together with the quantum computer to solve hard computational problems where we're basically allowing each processor to solve the part of the problem that's best suited. to the capabilities of that processor. And you mentioned there 5,000 qubits, I believe. Can you put that in just a comparison to traditional computing? What are we talking about in the order of magnitude difference? Well, first of all, let me point out that our quantum computers are much larger than any other quantum computers that are kind of being developed today. All of the other quantum systems are in the tens to a few hundred qubits. So our systems are in order of magnitude larger than any other quantum computer. Now, To put it in context versus classical computing, let me do it in terms of a specific application. We recently published in Nature a demonstration of our quantum computers solving a magnetic materials computation in minutes that would take nearly a million years to solve on frontier at Oak Ridge National Lob, which is one of the largest and most powerful supercomputers in the world. So at a few thousand qubits, our quantum computers are performing computations well beyond what's possible with classical computers, even the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Okay, so this is basically the next iteration of technology on top of supercomputers. So that's old technology now. Well, we like to think about it that way. Yeah, supercomputers are last year's technology. They're very capable. There are very important problems that can be solved on classical computers, whether they're CPUs or GPUs or massively parallel GPU systems. But there are also problems that cannot be practically solved on those systems. And that's where the next wave of quantum computing comes in. And I should make another point as well, which is that it's not just about the time to solve the problems. It's also about the power consumption. So as I think we are all aware now, GPUs are massive power hogs. And we hear about it every day that big tech is looking to buy nuclear power plants to kind of power these hyperscaler compute infrastructure environments. quantum computers are much more energy efficient. So that computation I referred to a few minutes ago in the area of magnetic materials, it took us about 12 kilowatts to perform that computation. If we were to perform it on frontier, it would take well over global annual energy consumption. So this is a much more energy efficient approach to computing as well. How does it achieve that? What makes it possible? So that's really in the way that quantum computers operate. As I said early on, quantum computing is all about using quantum mechanical effects to solve hard computational problems. And let me give you a very high level explanation of what I mean by that. If you think about current computers, information is stored in bits. and a bit can be either a zero or a one at any point in time. So what that means is that at any point in time, a classical computer is evaluating one possible solution to the problem. And the way classical computers work is they basically very intelligently iterate from one potential solution to a problem to the next, searching for the best possible solution. And algorithms are the term associated with that intelligent search process. Quantum computers use what we call qubits and superposition. And what this means is that at any point in time, qubits can be combinations of zero and one. So what that means is that at any point in time, A quantum computer is able to evaluate and operate on multiple possible solutions to the problem at the same time, allowing it to iterate its way to the best possible or correct solution much faster. And that's the way our quantum computers work. I want to dig into that more, the technology must be, I mean, it's obviously very advanced. Maybe I know I've seen that one of at least the things that you focus on is quantum annealing. Could you touch on that a bit and why you've chosen that? Yeah. So there are two main architectural approaches to quantum computing. One is called quantum annealing, as you just mentioned, and D-Wave is actually the only company in the world that provides annealing quantum computers. Everybody else is focused on gate model quantum computing. Now, there are some important differences between the two. Perhaps one of the most important differences is that annealing is a much easier technology to work with. It's easier to scale and it's much less sensitive to errors. And as a result, our quantum computers are an order of magnitude larger than any other quantum computer and they are able to deliver good if not optimal solutions to hard computational problems today without the need for error correction. On the gate model side, the technology is much more challenging and it's very, very sensitive to errors. In fact, there's no evidence at all that a gate model quantum computer will be able to solve a useful commercial problem without error correction. And we're still many years away from error correction on gate model systems. And that's why D-Wave is commercial today. That's why we have customers that are using our systems as a part of their business operations today. And that's just simply not possible with gate model systems because they're still at a very immature R &D stage where really all that's going on is research experimentation. So why haven't those companies chosen quantum annealing then? So there's a really interesting historical answer to that question. D-Wave began building a quantum computer over 15 years ago. The first company in the world to start building a quantum computer. At that point in time, the science, the engineering had not yet progressed to the point where there was line of sight to how you could build a gate model system. But there was line of sight to how you could build an annealing quantum computer. And so we decided to start with annealing quantum computing. In some sense, it's the only thing we could do at that point in time. Now, we knew that annealing would be very good at solving business optimization problems. Frankly, most of the important hard problems that businesses need to solve are business optimization problems. And we knew that annealing would be good at that. But we also knew that there were things it could not solve. For example, you can't use an annealing quantum computer for molecular discovery for quantum chemistry, for example. OK, so we decided to start with annealing. Eight or nine years ago, when everybody else decided to seriously pursue developing a quantum computer, the science and the engineering had progressed to the point where it was believed you probably could build a gate model system. And at that time, and this is a really important point, at that time, it was believed that a gate model quantum computer could perform all computations, could basically solve all types of problems better than classical. And so everybody else sort of adopted the point of view, well, We know that annealing is good at some things, but not all things. We believe gate model is good at all things. We now think we know how to build a gate model system. So let's go there. Now, fast forward to a couple of years ago. And this is a really kind of interesting twist of fate, at least for D-Wave. A couple of years ago, it was proven by researchers in both the US and Europe, that gate model quantum computers will likely never deliver a speed up on optimization problems. That you basically need an annealing system in order to address optimization problems. So now it's not that one is more general than the other. It's not that at all. It's that there are some applications that will always run best on annealing. And there are other applications that will always run best on gate. So you're always going to need both. But because of this kind of interesting twist of fate, D-Wave is really the only company that's doing annealing and can address that, frankly, very important portion of the market. So it's actually worked out quite well for Yeah, very good place to be in. If I can just go back to the range of offerings you've got. So you have the software that sits on top of the hardware that's optional, it? Because you also have a cloud solution that uses your own hardware that you have somewhere. Is that right? So the primary way that we and our customers access our quantum systems is through our cloud service. Now, we have recently sold one of our current generation advantage, we call our current systems advantage, one of our current generation advantage quantum computers to the Eulic Supercomputing Center in Germany. And we did that because they have an interest in tightly integrating our system with their new Jupyter exascale supercomputer. This is the first and only exascale supercomputer in Europe. And they want to tightly integrate it and explore a variety of workflows and use cases in the areas of AI and optimization. And in order to do that, they actually needed to own a system, have it on site, and be able to have control over more of the operating parameters of the system than we make available through our cloud service. But for customers that are simply interested in running their business applications, the cloud service is the way to go. It's a much more cost-effective approach to accessing our quantum systems. So we actually now have two... components to our go-to-market model. One of them is the cloud-based service. We call it quantum compute as a service. And that's ideal for commercial companies that are just simply interested in running their business applications. And the other is system sale. And that's more for supercomputing centers, government labs that are really interested in tighter integration with other systems. and controlling more of the operating parameters of the quantum. And do your customers have to build applications specifically to sit on top of the quantum computing? And at the same time, I believe you offer your own applications that people can use as well. So we actually do not sell applications. We sell access to our quantum systems. We sell our quantum systems. And then we sell professional services to help our customers build and deploy applications that are of value to them. And so as a result, we've helped many companies evaluate applications with respect to what kinds of benefits they could achieve by leveraging our quantum systems. And then for those where they see a sound ROI on the application, we've helped them actually build and benchmark and deploy those applications. So for example, Ford Autoson, which is a joint venture of Ford Motor Company and Koch Holdings in Turkey, we worked with them to develop an application for scheduling the assembly of automotive bodies. And what they found was that by using our quantum computers, we could significantly reduce the time to do the scheduling, which meant that they could adapt in real time to changes throughout the day. And that was important to them. is now moving into production at Ford Autosign. And do these applications typically use AI as part of what they're doing? And if or not. So they don't. The applications that are in production today at customer sites are basically using quantum systems to solve hard optimization problems. However, we are working on ways to integrate our quantum systems within AI environments. And there are two areas that we're looking at. One is basically using the two capabilities together, letting each solve the portion of the problem that it's best at solving. For example, you might use AI to predict future product demand and then use quantum to optimize the supply chain. to meet that demand. Here, we're using AI and quantum together, each addressing a different portion of the use case, the portion that it's best at addressing. The second area that we are working on, and this is potentially very, very transformative for AI, would be to insert the quantum computer into the AI model training and inference workflows. Why would you do that? This is back to my comment earlier about energy efficiency. So what's the biggest issue right now with AI model training? It's power consumption. However, what we've started working on, and we have early evidence that this could be a very transformative capability. What we started working on is using the quantum computer to perform some of the computations in model training together with the GPUs, where the two working together can use dramatically less electricity to perform the model training. And we think that this could be very transformative for the AI industry. And we're quite excited about Awesome. Are you exploring anything in that realm yet, or is that still early stages? no, we actually have work going on in that arena. We've actually developed some of the early capabilities. We've used it on smaller data sets and we're seeing good results. We're now in the process of basically starting to work with much larger data sets to essentially prove out the capability and the value. Amazing. I wonder if we can just touch on a few more of the real world applications. You've already talked about a couple already, but you've announced quite a few major partnerships recently from insurance optimization to autonomous agriculture. What are some of the most compelling commercial use cases that you're working on today? Yeah, so first of all, let me take just a brief step back and provide some context for all the commercial work that we are doing. So there's a lot of confusion in the marketplace with respect to whether quantum computers can actually deliver value today on important real world applications or not. Unfortunately, too many of the quantum computing companies are dramatically overstating what they are capable of delivering in that arena. So what we wanted to do was to help customers separate the hype from the reality. And as a result, what we did was we developed a framework that we call quantum realized. basically what you should look for in a quantum provider if you really want to have confidence that you're going to be able to get value. And there are three components to that framework. First, have the systems provided by the quantum company been able to solve problems better than they can be solved classically? Simple thing. But the truth of the matter is you probably won't find a gate model quantum computer where you can affirmatively answer that question. But for D-Wave, the problem that I described to you a little while ago in magnetic materials, this is a problem that's useful, important and useful, that we are solving in minutes that essentially can't be solved classically. So does the vendor have quantum computers that can solve a problem better than it can be solved classically. Second, are the systems from the vendor reliable and available enough for you to actually be able to depend on those systems as a part of your business operations? And in our case, when you access our systems through our Quantum Cloud Service, we have 99.9 % availability. And in fact, we offer service level agreements to our customers. We believe we're the only quantum company in the world that actually offers service level agreements. And in fact, if you go out and look at the public data around reliability and availability of other quantum systems, you'll see things like 30 % availability, 70 % availability, one week queuing times before a problem will be run. mean, our problems run in real time with very high availability. So that's the second part. And then the third point in the framework is, is the quantum company actually working with customers on real commercial applications and or that are in production? And we've talked about Ford Utterson, for example, which has an application on AutoVisit Assembly in production today. So those three elements we think are what any company should be looking for and asking about. when they start talking to a quantum company? Can your system solve problems better than they can be solved classically? Are your systems highly reliable and available? And do you have examples of where you've worked with commercial companies to be able to deliver value? And we can answer yes to all three of those questions. Now, some examples. I talked about Ford Autosign. Another example is NTT Docomo. We've worked with NTT Docomo on optimizing cell tower resource utilization. And there are two elements to the results. One, we've been able to perform this optimization computation in 40 seconds, whereas it had been taking them 27 hours. And two, leveraging the solutions that come out of our quantum systems, each cell tower can support up to 15 % more cell phones, which means lower infrastructure costs for NTT Docomo, which is a significant benefit to them. Another example is Patterson Food Group, a Canadian grocery chain, which is basically leveraging us for two different applications. One is for workforce scheduling, taking a computation that was taking 25 hours a week down to minutes a week, and then last mile routing for e-commerce delivery. So these are some examples of customers that are actually using our systems today in production. There are other customers that we are working with. For example, BBVA. We're working with them on financial portfolio optimization, leveraging both AI and quantum computing. We've talked about some work that we did with the pharmaceutical division of Japan Tobacco, where we've been able to help them enhance their large language model training in a way where they are now able to basically compute better new molecular structures than with the models that were developed without quantum. So a fairly broad array of application areas. And it's the main benefit at the moment to do with you've just got the power now to do things that may have taken years before can actually be done in a reasonable amount of time. Is this the main benefit? So things they wouldn't even try to explore, they can now do. So I think of the benefit as falling into two categories, what I call evolutionary applications and what I call revolutionary applications. Evolutionary applications are applications like the ones I've just been describing. These are computations that companies are performing today. It's just that they're computationally so hard that simplifications of the problem and heuristics are being used to try to come up with what the company hopes are good enough solutions, but they're not getting to optimal solution. And they have no way to determine how close to optimal the solutions actually are. But with our quantum computers, we can deliver better, if not optimal solutions. And so there's a business benefit to that. So this isn't about attacking problems that can't be solved classically. It's about solving current problems better than they are being solved today. Then there are the revolutionary applications. These are things that can't be addressed today. So for example, computing properties of magnetic materials so that I can do materials discovery computationally without needing to go actually fabricate the material and test it to allow me to iterate more rapidly. to materials that may meet my needs. This is an example of a computational area where we can't even attack it today because classical doesn't have the horsepower to get anywhere near good enough solutions. I'm going to your business momentum, et cetera, in a second. I can't believe more companies aren't using this yet. Well, I will say that we're making really good progress. uh For example, we just had our yearly customer conference last week, actually, in Scottsdale, Arizona. Attendance was roughly double what we had had the year before. We laid out our product roadmap for the future. which is very exciting. We're at 5,000 qubits today. We talked about how we're gonna get to 100,000 qubits in the relatively near term. And then we had a whole host of customers talking about how they are using their systems today. And so the hallway discussion was very different from our customer conference last year. Last year, the hallway discussion was kind of along the lines of, well, how does this really work? Do you think that there's a way that I could get some value out of these quantum systems? Whereas this year, the hallway discussion was, okay, how can we put an agreement in place to get started? Do you believe we're at an inflection point where people, you know, value behind quantum computing is starting to be realized? I mean, maybe just by your company that's started to offer these sort of benefits to companies. I absolutely do in the sense that we have a rapidly growing pipeline of customers and customer opportunities that we are pursuing. As a result, we have started investing in growing our go-to-market team and our professional services team to meet that demand. And then in addition to that, we are working on some very interesting and powerful transformative application. So I talked about the supremacy result. I talked about AI and improving model training. That's very transformative application area. We're still probably a year or two away from being able to actually deliver a product that provides value in that arena. But another area is blockchain. Based on the computation that we perform for quantum supremacy, we have been able to create a quantum hashing function. So hashing is kind of at the core of blockchain, right? It's all about computing hash functions and then proof of work is validating the hash functions. And that's how you basically perform transactions against the blockchain. And what we have running today, Prototype distributed quantum application. This is probably the first distributed quantum application across several of our quantum computers where we are using them to basically implement a blockchain where we are computing hash functions and validating hash functions and as a result adding adding things to the blockchain as They should be added with a high degree of security and most importantly very energy efficient because that quantum proof of work uses about one one thousand the electricity of current blockchain classical proof of work. And so we think that, in addition to all the commercial stuff that I've been talking about, we have a couple of very, very transformative applications on the horizon in the area of blockchain and AI. And you mentioned going from 5,000 qubits to 100,000. What sort of problems does that unlock that you can solve? Because that's a dramatic shift in the power. Yeah, so first of all, it's probably going to be much easier for us to see that kind of rapid growth than anybody else for the following reason. One of the things that we have developed for our annealing quantum computers, and it took us 15 years to get there, is what we call cryogenic control. So we use superconducting technology. So that means that our quantum processors live in dilution refrigerators and operate at near absolute zero. Now, you need to control those chips. So you need control signals coming from the outside world at room temperature and going down into the refrigerator and controlling the chips. What everybody else working on superconducting quantum computers is doing is they're performing all the control functions at room temperature and then sending the data down. What this means is they need multiple IO lines per qubit. Two, three, four IO lines per qubit. You cannot scale that. We, on the other hand, have on-chip control. We have digital analog converters on our chip in the refrigerator. We have on-chip addressing. We have on-chip data pipelining. And as a result, we are able to control our 5,000 qubit processor with only about 200 IO lines, okay? Not 10,000, 15,000, 20,000 IO lines. And this is critical, because as you scale to 100,000, you cannot have one, two, or three IO lines per qubit. We believe that with the current cryogenic control capabilities that we have with some minor modifications, that we can support the 100,000 qubits with still just 200 IO lines. So first of all, we have already most of what we need in the way of control structures to be able to control these larger processors. What we need to do is to be able to build the processor that has that number of qubits. Well, how do we do that? Up until now, it's always been about more qubits on a chip. went from 500 qubits to 1,000 qubits to 2,000 qubits to 5,000 qubits. And we still got some headroom there. But what we are now focused on is multi-chip. Basically, taking our, if you like, 5,000 qubit processors and gluing them together. So think about it. If I glue four 5,000 qubit processors together, I'm already at 20,000 qubits. And I already have the control structure to control that number of qubits. So the challenge for us is really in how we interconnect the qubits and maintain the quantum mechanical properties across the chips. But we believe we know how to do that. And we're working on prototype versions of that in our lab today. I didn't. And you mentioned that the deal, your pipeline of deals is growing. think I've got a stat here. It's grown over 500 % year on year, which obviously a huge signal. Well, to be clear, that 500 % was Q4 over Q4 bookings growth. So if we look at our bookings in Q4 of 23 versus our bookings in Q4 of 2024, we had 500 % growth. So bookings are growth. And why, because you mentioned we're at this inflection point, but why do you think suddenly you're getting more customer bookings come in? Is it just because you've been more real world use cases, people starting to see the examples of how it's working and it's just building on that momentum? Part of it is that we have quantum systems that are now capable of solving these important useful problems. And part of it is that as we are demonstrating success with customers, word is getting out. So is your technology advanced recently, quite significantly, that's opened up these opportunities? And you currently serve a mix of commercial, government and research customers. Which segment do you believe will be your primary revenue driver over the years to come? Well, to be clear, most of our business is commercial. So we do disclose a number of customers. In our last earnings call, we disclosed that we have over 100 total customers. Over 70 of them are commercial versus government or education. And of the 70, over 20 are Forbes Global 2000 companies. So we are far more commercially oriented right now. However, as we start moving into system sales more aggressively and looking at supercomputing centers and national labs, we'll start to pick up more of a kind of government component as well. And in the commercial sector, are there certain sectors or industries that you see get the most value back from your systems? Yeah. So our quantum systems today are most well suited to problems in the area of resource allocation and resource scheduling. And they fall primarily into the supply chain logistics and manufacturing verticals. So that's kind of where our primary focus is. mean, obviously we have customers that come in and from different areas that are interested in working with us and we will work with them, but Our primary focus on outreach is in supply chain logistics and And I wanted to ask a question about the recent tariffs from China and America. How has that impacted your business? you see this getting resolved over the near term, possibly? So it has not impacted our business and will not impact our business. And the reason is, first of all, we don't sell to China. Quantum computing is a sensitive technology for the US government. And so we just don't sell to China. Secondly, if you look at the bill of materials associated with our quantum computers, less than 10 % of the cost is parts from China. These are low tech parts, things like connectors. So even if there was 2X, 3X, 4X tariffs, it just would not change the economics for us. Plus, if we had to, we could pretty easily design them out. So it's just not an issue for us. And is it, am I right saying everything's built in the USA then? So we're built in North America. All of our processor fabrication work is done in the US. However, assembly of the systems is done in Canada. And the reason is the company was originally founded in Canada 20 years ago, and we saw the significant R &D presence there. We are now a US company headquartered in Palo Alto, California. But we still have manufacturing presence, an R &D and manufacturing presence in That's really good, really impressive to see that you can build that in North America nowadays and still make this amazing technology. And we've touched a little bit on the future, but maybe if there's other things we haven't particularly talked about yet, what's your vision for quantum computing in the next 10 years? How's it going to be? Where is it going to be in the enterprise? Do you see us across most of the big companies in the world? So first of all, for D-Wave, obviously, we're focused on continuing to execute against our roadmap, which includes always larger processors. I talked about a roadmap to 100,000 qubits, more connected processors. In our Advantage system, each qubit is connected to 15 others. In our Advantage 2 system, each qubit is connected to 20 others. More qubits, more connectivity means we can solve larger and more complex problems. We're also always focused on increasing coherence time. Coherence time is the time that the system remains in the quantum mechanical state, unimpacted by the external environment. And our Advantage 2 system has two times the coherence over our Advantage system, which means we can solve problems faster. And then increasing what we call energy scale. This is like the precision with which we can specify problem parameters. And Advantage 2 has a 40 % increase in energy scale over Advantage, which means more accurate solutions to the problem. So it's always about larger and more connected processors to solve larger problems, longer coherence times to solve them faster, and higher energy scale to deliver better solutions. And we've got a multi-year roadmap for Advantage 2, Advantage 3, Advantage 4 that we'll be executing against that. Then we are also building a gate model. quantum computer. The reason why we're doing that is because, as I said up front, there are problems that do require gate. There are problems that require annealing. There are problems that require gate. And we want to be able to address the full set of use cases for our customers. And much of the technology that we develop for annealing quantum computers is applicable to a scale error corrected gate model system. For example, all that cryogenic control that I talked about before. We're the only company in the world that has that capability, and that's going to be required for a scale, error corrected, superconducting gate model system. And so we are also working for that, and that is also part of our roadmap. And these things will roll out over the course of the next three years, five years, seven years, 10 years. But in general, I think that if we look out over the 10 year time frame, that obviously annealing will continue to kind of be critical infrastructure for the class of problems it's good at, especially in the optimization area. We'll finally start to see some gate model systems that can do useful commercial work. And then I think we will be amazed at some of the things that quantum computers are helping us do. particularly in the area of blockchain and AI and dramatically lower energy consumption. Well, thanks, Alan. That's it's been really, really interesting to talk about quantum with you today. And I'm sure it's going to be interesting for the audience as well, because a lot of people still don't know a lot about it, because it is quite relatively nascent in terms of visibility across, you know, even just the if you're just the main company offers it today, you know, it's it's great to have you on the show and been able to share those insights with everyone. So I don't know if there's anything you'd like to leave the audience with before we wrap up. But thanks again for your time. So first of all, thank you for the opportunity to be here. I really enjoyed the conversation. The only thing I will kind of reinforce is that quantum is real and commercial today. We have a framework called Quantum Realize to help anybody pick solution providers to help them with that. And we're excited to be leading the charge in this environment. Thanks, Alan. Speak to you soon. Bye. Bye-bye.